When certainty is not certain anymore
A few days ago the most powerful military in the world went to war with a country halfway across the globe. Their certainty almost convinced the world of a quick victory. They were ready to blow their Trump’et.
That move literally backfired. They now realise they are not dealing with an also-ran army.
In the same week, the world witnessed another fight of unequals. The Pentagon and the US government picked a fight with an AI company practically down the street and blacklisted them.
That move backfired too.
They did not expect the world to C’LAUD’e the very company they went against. Large numbers of people downloaded Claude almost as an act of solidarity. Reddit threads appeared explaining how to migrate from ChatGPT. Someone even drew chalk art outside Anthropic’s office in San Francisco saying “you give us courage.”
Then came Sam Altman. The genius. The man considered incapable of a wrong move.
He announced a deal with the Pentagon on the same day Anthropic was officially blacklisted. Seemed like a smart move. Fill the vacuum, grab the contract, look decisive.
That backfired too. So badly that he publicly admitted it looked “opportunistic and sloppy.” Not a great sentence to have to say out loud when your whole brand is built on being the good guy.
Meanwhile Claude spiked. From 42nd on the App Store to number one in a matter of days. Claude may not have been the choice of the US government, but it certainly became the choice of everyone else. Anthropic was beginning to bask in the glory. People felt happy propping the victim to the podium.
And guess what. That backfired too.
All those people who downloaded Claude in an act of righteous solidarity promptly crashed it. The servers slowed. The app hung. Social media filled with frustrated posts from users who had just made a principled stand for ethical AI and now could not get the thing to load.
Meanwhile, two of the most powerful and strategically sophisticated militaries in the world, with all their precision weapons and war games, almost managed to choke Iran. Almost.
But did they win? We will never know. What we do know is that this move backfired too.
What weapons could not achieve, geography did. A narrow strait became the convenient choke point to starve the world of its fuel. Powerful nations came to their knees.
In the space of one week, everyone who made a move they were completely sure about got it wrong.
Maybe the most dangerous thing in today’s world is not AI. It is not wars either.
It is certainty.
That is the irony of it all. Or should we say, AI’rany of it all.
History is full of arrogant and deranged rulers who tried to bite more than they could chew and ended up biting the dust instead. America has had an illustrious legacy of presidents bragging their way into quagmires- Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan.. an now, Iran. They don’t seem to have learnt their lesson.
Iran has nothing more to lose- not much would have survived a month of relentless bombing. There’s nothing more ferocious and dangerous than a cornered and wounded animal. Iran has nothing left to negotiate for. They will try to inflict as much pain as they can to whoever they can before They have activated the Houthis now – if they manage to choke Bab el Mandab as well, you can say goodbye to much of world trade.
Oh yeah, the Somalis would be happy to have some sitting ducks in their waters.
You have a knack for connecting things and draw a perfect analogy. One observation clearly emerges. You can never predict the world events and make decisions based on your prediction. Even claude or any other AI platforms could not predict such events. Lesson learnt, expect the worst and be prepared. If nothing happens still you can be happy. Is Bhaskart related to lesnscart!?